Bangla2000 | Health News - Genetic code: Is mankind on a road to playing God?

Dr. Ari Patrinos of the Energy Department, center, accompanied by Francis Collins, head of the Human Genome Project of the National Institutes of Health, left, and Celera Genomics head J. Craig Venter, attend a news conference in Washington Monday, June 26, 2000 to discuss the Human Genome Project. (AP Photo/Dennis Cook)

BERKELEY, California (AP) - The deciphering of the human genetic code will likely spur more investors to turn to the biotechnology industry in search of the next road to riches, industry executives predict.

Scientists announced at a White House news conference Monday that the human genetic code essentially has been deciphered, a monumental achievement that opens a dramatic new frontier in medicine.

Biotech industry luminaries, who gathered for a conference at the University of California, Berkeley, said the attention generated by the day's genome breakthrough will likely cast a brighter spotlight on biotech's profit potential.

"I think the biotech industry today is right where the computer industry was in the 1970s," said Randy Scott, president and CEO of Incyte Genomics, a Palo Alto biotech firm that has enjoyed a 49 percent run-up in its stock so far this year. "We think the next 20 to 30 years are going to be known as the genomics age."

Not everyone is convinced the biotech industry is poised to change the stock market's financial DNA, however.

G. Steven Burrill, CEO of merchant banking firm Burrill and Co., recalled that the biotech industry has broken the hearts of infatuated investors in the past.

"The capital markets have had a love-hate relationship with biotech largely because investor expectations have exceeded the reality," he said.

Biotechs have had a very erratic performance. Many drugs and therapies that held out great promise didn't pan out, making for a bumpy ride for investors.

Despite past disappointments, there is healthy interest in biotech companies now.

In 1999, biotech companies received dlrs 10 billion from stock market investors and venture capitalists after getting just dlrs 5 billion

President Clinton applauds British Prime Minister Tony Blair Monday, June 26, 2000, during a joint teleconference announcement that the publicly financed Human Genome Project and private efforts by Celera Genomics Corporation have both completed the first rough map of the human genome, the working blueprint for human beings. The discovery is seen as one of history's great scientific milestones, the biological equivalent of the moon landing. (AP Photo/Ron Edmonds)

in each of the previous two years, according to Eric Roberts, a managing director for Lehman Brothers.

After a spate of initial public offerings since last fall, about 348 of the nation's 1,300 biotech companies are publicly traded on stock exchanges.

Experts believe the continuing research into the human genome and the effort to develop revolutionary drugs from the findings is bound to attract more money to the biotech industry.

"We are going to see some intense enthusiasm for funding basic research," said Carl Feldbaum, president of the Biotechnology Industry Organization, a national trade group.

The bullish outlook for the biotech industry reflects the expectation that scientists will be able to use the human genome research to develop more effective drugs to treat some of the world's most devastating diseases, such as cancer and Alzheimer's.

Finding a cure to cancer would be worth about dlrs 47 trillion to the U.S. economy alone, according to a study done by University of Chicago researchers Bob Topel and Kevin Murphy.

Even if outright cures aren't found for deadly diseases, the biotech industry is still in a position to benefit from demographic changes that should create a larger market for all kinds of drugs and treatments. The number of people over 65 years old is expected to grow from 550 million in 1998 to more than 1 billion in 2020, according to the World Health Organization.

The biotech industry also offers plenty of downsides, too. What can appear to be promising new drugs in the early development stages can turn out to cause unwelcome side effects later, preventing them from reaching the market.

"There will be dead ends in the road ahead. It's bound to happen," said Ross DeVol, director of regional studies for the Milken Institute, a Santa Monica think tank that foresees a bright future for the biotech industry.

Now that the human genetic blueprint has been virtually deciphered, drug companies have more biological targets than ever to use in their hunt for new drugs.

But experts say it will take at least five to 10 years for pharmaceutical firms to develop new drugs based on Monday's long-anticipated announcement that a rough draft of the sequencing of the human genome is complete.

That's because only a small fraction of the tens of thousands of new genes discovered as part of the Human Genome Project actually cause disease. Science must still figure out which ones they are, how they work and how they can be altered to prevent and treat illness.

"This is a book with no instructions," said Eric Lai, who heads Glaxo Wellcome PLC's molecular genetics department. "This is the first draft of a novel that we need to refine so it's like Shakespeare."

The great hope is that gene-based drugs will work on more specific conditions, have fewer side effects, and deliver a more potent antidote against today's incurable diseases.

Pharmaceutical heavyweights such as Bristol-Myers Squibb Co., Hoffmann-La Roche Inc. and Glaxo Wellcome, all of which have heavily invested in gene research for more than a decade, will likely have an edge in the race to find new medicines.

But analysts warn that even these industry giants will face long odds at turning this scientific achievement into treatments for disease.

"This is an important step forward, but it's still a long road to hoe in developing new medicines," said Joseph Zammit-Lucia, president of the London-based Cambridge Pharma Consultancy.

In some respects, Monday's announcement was more a symbolic moment because information about the human genome has become public periodically over the past decade.

"Today does not change anything," said Lee Babiss, vice president of clinical research at Hoffmann-La Roche."We only have the added recognition that we have everything in place. ... It will take a while to figure out how best to use this ocean of information."

Researchers years ago identified found genes for specific diseases such as cystic fibrosis, but finding effective medicines to prevent or cure the conditions has proven elusive.

More often, drugs have been discovered through gene research via serendipity. That was the case with development of two new arthritis painkillers- Merck and Co.'s Vioxx and Pharmacia Corp.'s Celebrex.

The dilemma for drug firms now will be in managing all the information collected in the sequencing of the human genome.

"It's like being on a shooting range and now having a million targets, but you don't know which ones to shoot at first," Zammit-Lucia said.

Major drug firms are working alone with smaller biotech firms such as PE Corp.'s Celera Genomics Group to use the gene technology.

By having a full map of the human genome, drug companies are aiming to find new medicines that target an individual's genetic code - a sort of more personalized medicine. But while this step may ensure better medicines, it also means drug companies will have more difficulty finding the right patients to participate in clinical trials, experts say.

Having the genome map completed should quicken drug discovery because companies more easily will be able to examine large families of related genes, said Tony Ford-Hutchinson, senior vice president of research at Merck and Co.

Elliott Sigal, senior vice president of early discovery research at Bristol-Myers Squibb, said it can also make the process more efficient. "We now have a huge opportunity to be more directed and curative in the therapies that we develop," he said. "Before it was always a question of what is missing."