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November 20, 2000 

MANILA--(UNB/AP) - Opposition lawmakers said Sunday many Filipinos would not accept a close vote clearing President Joseph Estrada in his impeachment trial, prompting massive protests which could force him from power.

Last week, the House of Representatives delivered articles of impeachment against Estrada to the Senate charging him with pocketing millions of dollars in illegal gambling payoffs and tax kickbacks.

The Senate plans to issue a summons to Estrada on Monday instructing him to answer impeachment allegations in 10 days. A trial - the first of a president in Philippine history - is expected to start early next month.

A two-thirds vote of the 22-member Senate on any of four impeachment charges would immediately remove Estrada from office.

At least eight senators, more than enough to prevent a conviction, belong to or are identified with Estrada's ruling LAMP party.

Opposition lawmaker Rep. Ernesto Herrera said if Estrada wins by a close vote, it would still mean a majority of senators believe he should be removed from office.

That could prompt many Filipinos to take to the streets to demand his removal and convince foreign investors to stay away from the country knowing Estrada is holding on to power by a narrow thread, Herrera said.

"In that situation he could not be removed by just a matter of technicality," Herrera said. "But as far as the people are concerned, he's guilty."

Herrera, one of several opposition lawmakers who filed the impeachment charges in the House, said the president would be unable to recover.

Rep. Heherson Alvarez, another opposition lawmaker, said a close vote acquitting Estrada would almost totally erode Estrada's ability to govern. "He'll be a complete lame duck," he said.

Sen. John Osmena, who belongs to the ruling party, said a not-guilty verdict should be accompanied by "meaningful and tangible reforms that will address people's concerns on cronyism and corruption."

If the political opposition, the church and left-wing groups do not accept a not-guilty verdict by the Senate, a stalemate could ensue which would send the economy into a further tailspin and give the military reason to intervene, Osmena said.

"What I fear is a stalemate, a gridlock, where no side would give way. In that situation, the military can come in anytime," he said.

Estrada has denied allegations by Luis Singson, governor of the northern province of Ilocos Sur, that he accepted more than 400 million pesos (dlrs 8 million) from illegal gambling operators and 130 million pesos (dlrs 2.6 million) from tobacco taxes.

On Saturday, Estrada urged the Senate to speed up the impeachment trial and appealed for calm from protesters.

"I have long waited for this, since the first allegations were made against me," Estrada said. "At last, I will be given an opportunity to reveal the whole truth in the proper forum."

The impeachment complaint also charges Estrada with favoring friends and relatives in government contracts and investigations, and with participating in a family-controlled real estate business despite a prohibition on outside business interests while in office.

Rules for the impeachment trial will be based on those used by the U.S. Senate in President Clinton's impeachment, but allow the senators to directly question witnesses for two minutes each. In Clinton's trial, all questions were routed through the chief justice.

Estrada cannot be compelled to testify, but aides say he is considering attending if there are sufficient legal protections.

Senate President Aquilino Pimentel, widely respected for his independence, said he will try to avoid a lengthy trial, which could further harm the economy, adding he could order the arrest of anyone who attempts to derail the proceedings.