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Scientists start work on massive global-warming survey |
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January 20, 2001
SHANGHAI, JAN 19 (UNB/AP) - Hoping to help break a political deadlock on global warming, a U.N.-sponsored gathering of scientists is working on the most comprehensive report yet on climate change blamed on air pollution. The two day conference, which started Friday, is aimed at adding urgency to talks on cutting greenhouse gas emissions, which one participant said could raise global temperatures much more than previously forecast. The last round of climate talks ended in November in the Netherlands without agreement on how to carry out the 1997 Kyoto Protocol. That committed governments to cut output of carbon dioxide and other gases suspected of raising global temperatures to 5.2 percent below 1990 levels by 2010. A key point of conflict is a U.S.-led attempt to cushion the blow by subtracting carbon dioxide absorbed by forests and farmland from countries' reduction quotas. Some European governments oppose such credits. The United States is the biggest producer of greenhouse gases, with 25 percent of all emissions. Among other key opponents of drastic cuts are oil companies and major coal producers such as Australia. The next round of negotiations is to take place in May in Bonn, Germany. The change of government in Washington could complicate the talks. President-elect George W. Bush, a former oil executive, has expressed reluctance about U.S. commitments to curbing global warming. Greenhouse gases are suspected of raising global temperatures by causing the atmosphere to trap more of the sun's heat. Scientists say that could lead to drought and flooding as weather patterns shift and polar ice melts. "If temperatures continue to rise like this, it will do great harm to agriculture and water resources," said Ding Yihui, a Chinese meteorologist who is co-chairman of the Shanghai conference. The conference is part of a parallel process to the government talks. Under U.N. auspices, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change acts as an expert advisory board. Its work culminates in April with the release of a massive report on global warming. Also among the 230 participants in Shanghai are representatives of such environmental groups as Greenpeace and oil industry lobbying groups. Robert Watson, a World Bank official who is chairman of the climate change panel, said growing evidence supports a link between gas emissions and rising temperatures. Watson said new studies suggest that average worldwide temperatures could rise by up to 5 1/2 degrees Celsius (10 degrees Fahrenheit) over the next century - much higher than the 1 1/2 to 3 degrees Celsius (2 1/2 to 5 1/2 degrees Fahrenheit) previously thought. "What this report is likely to conclude is that climate change is ... if anything, more serious than they thought before," he said. China, the conference host, is the second-biggest producer of greenhouse gases. Some scientists say it could overtake the United States and become the biggest polluter within two to three decades. China's output is fed in part by heavy reliance on its abundant supplies of dirty, high-sulfur coal to fuel power plants and factories. But plagued by smog that has made its major cities the world's dirtiest, China has begun a massive effort to shift to natural gas and cleaner fuels. China already is feeling the impact of a warming climate, said Ding, the Chinese meteorologist. In the late 1990s, he said, its west endured the hottest weather since the start of record-keeping in the 1940s. Chinese researchers forecast smaller temperature rises in coming decades than other scientists, but agree that greenhouse gases are to blame, Ding said. "Climate change will have a tremendous effect on grassland, forest and farmland. It will have an adverse effect on China - a big impact," he said. |