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World's urban people to outnumber rural population by 2007

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April 1, 2000

 

UNITED NATIONS, Mar 311(BSS): The world's urban population is growing so fast that by the year 2007 city dwellers will outnumber rural residents for the first time in history, the UN Population Division says.

And in 40 years - at current growth rates - the world urban population will double, to about 5.8 billion. There are now six billion people on the globe.


Currently 2.9 billion people or 47 per cent of the world's population live in urban areas. By 2030, when total global population is expected to hit eight billion, some 4.9 billion people or close to 60 percent of all the people in the world will be city dwellers, according to the L999 Revision of the UN Official.


Estimates and Projections of Urban, Rural and City Populations have just been released by the UN Population Division.

"The world has experienced remarkable demographic change during the second half of the 20th century, but the pace. of change as not been uniform across countries," UN Secretary General Kofi Annan said in a report to the Commission on Population and Development, which began its 33rd annual session Monday.

A report prepared by the UN Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific (ESCAP) states that, "Globally, only in Asia were there consistent increases in levels of urbanization over the last four decades. 

Interestingly, the majority of projected population increases are expected to be absorbed by the urban areas of less developed regions.

 

These regions will account for 98 per cent of global population growth between 1999 and 2015, according to Charting the Progress of Populations, a publication of the UN Department of Economic and Social Affairs (DESA). The DESA report also emphasizes that stabilization of population growth has been found to make a crucial contribution to the achievement of sustainable development.

In East and South-East Asia, populations have slowly begun to stabilize, according to the ESCAP report, however, South and West Asian populations are rapidly increasing as well as experiencing large rural to urban shifts. The ESCAP study also found that urbanization in the Asia and Pacific region includes a significant proportion of females.


Government policies that have promoted export-led development, free-trade zones, " and a labor environment free of industrial activity have boosted the number of female workers and consequently, there are high numbers of very young unmarried girls living alone, away from their families and traditional support structures.

One of the themes the commission on population and development is exploring during its current session is the link between population, gender and development.

Joseph Chamie, director of the UN Population Division, told IPS that demographics have a pivotal impact on all components of society," economic, social, political and cultural",


"Virtually all population growth from now until 2030 will be concentrated in the world's urban centers," the UN Population Division report notes. 


The urban populations of less developed regions are expected to rise from 1.9 billion in 2000 to 3.9 billion in 2030. In contrast, their rural population will grow very slowly, at just 0.1 per cent. World rural population will remain nearly stable, varying between 3.2 and 3.3 billion.

The process of urbanization has already reached advanced stages in the more developed regions where 76 per cent of people live in urban agglomerations. Growth in urbanization in these regions will continue and by 2030, 84 per cent of the citizens of more developed countries will be city dwellers. The level of urbanization in less developed regions, though considerably lower, will go from 40 to 56 per cent by 2030, the report projects. 

It also points out that there are marked differences in the level and pace of urbanization among the major areas that comprise the less developed regions. 

Latin America and the Caribbean are highly urbanized, with 75 per cent of their populations living in an urban environment, a proportion on par with that of Europe and North America. Asia and Africa on the other hand are considerably less urbanized with 37 to 38 per cent of their populations living in urban areas.

 

The urbanization process is expected to be most rapid in Asia and Africa. Consequently by 2030, more than 50 per cent of these regions' inhabitants will be city dwellers. 

By 2030 the urban populations of Europe, North America, Latin America and the Caribbean will reach approximately 83 per cent.


The report estimates that 28.5 per cent of the world population currently resides in small cities of less than one million inhabitants.

 

Source: The Financial Express


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