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Change Your Life! |
Bush leads in poll, thriving among key swing groups |
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May 12, 2000
WASHINGTON, MAY 11 (AP) - Gov. George W. Bush is tied with Vice President Al Gore among women in the race for the White House and leads among conservative Democrats who supported Ronald Reagan, says a new poll that suggests voters are increasingly pessimistic about the state of the nation- a bad sign for Democrats.
The poll comes at a time when Gore repeatedly describes the likely Republican presidential nominee's proposals as "risky" or "reckless."
"All the indications are that Bush has an edge in the race and that Gore is the underdog, which is unbelievable given the strong economy and what Bush went through in the primaries," said political analyst Stuart Rothenberg.
The Voter.com-Battleground poll released Thursday highlighted Gore's challenges in the race. Nationally, Bush led Gore 48 percent to 42 percent in the bipartisan survey by Democratic pollster Celinda Lake and Republican pollster Ed Goeas.
That was in line with a national poll released Wednesday by The Los Angeles Times showing Bush leading among registered voters by 51 percent to Gore's 43 percent, The presidential contest will be settled by separate elections in each state, with candidates competing for that state's electoral votes, en route to the required 270 electoral votes.
Voters feel the country is going in the wrong direction by 49 percent to 39 percent. Both pollsters agreed the negative sentiment is bad for incumbents, especially Democrats. This negative feeling comes despite a belief by a majority of voters that the strong economy will continue in coming months.
"The downturn in national mood is problematic for Democratic candidates," Lake wrote in her analysis. "Voters who believe things are off on the wrong track are solidly supportive of Republican candidates."
When voters were asked about the top issues for Congress, they mentioned "restoring moral values" most often, followed by education. Republicans have the advantage on restoring moral values, while congressional Democrats lead on education. Health care and Social Security were next.
Voters' concerns are focused on children, Goeas said, both on their schools and the quality of their communities.
Voters split on which party they trust to improve the economy. Bush led among men by 10 percentage points. The Texas governor was ahead 4 points among women, essentially a tie in a group that normally votes Democratic. He also led among independents.
Gore's support among many groups of women had grown weaker in the past couple of months, Lake said.
The poll found that Bush had a 55 percent to 41 percent lead among so-called Reagan Democrats. Gore had a 12-point lead among Hispanics, a group that once favored Bush, and a big advantage among single women and blacks in the poll of 1,000 likely voters. It was taken May 1-3 and had an error margin of plus or minus 3 percentage points.
But few voters are paying close attention to the campaign this far ahead of the election, said political scientist Bruce Buchanan of the University of Texas.
"That means the background dynamics of the election come to the fore," he said. "Even though the economy is good, among key groups like independent voters there is an element of wanting to move toward change, but in a safe way. And the governor (Bush) looks acceptable."
Bush has a name that is familiar to voters and though he's not well defined, "he seems more friendly and likable" than the earlier face of the Republican Party, Buchanan said, referring to former House Speaker Newt Gingrich.
While a majority in the poll approved of the job Bill Clinton is doing as president, six in 10 disapproved of him personally - almost half strongly disapproving.
In an attempt to shift public opinion in the presidential race, Gore constantly defines Bush proposals as "arrogant," "reckless" or "risky."
"Gore's strategy is to deconstruct Bush's positions with a vengeance," said analyst Stephen Hess of the Brookings Institution.
"At this point, it hurts Gore's poll figures because it doesn't make him warm and fuzzy. And Bush is very good at that game."
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