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China, Taiwan enter new political era with tensions high |
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May 20, 2000
TAIPEI, MAY 19 (AP) - The worst-case scenario was that Chinese missiles would rain down on Taiwan because the island's newly elected president would rashly declare independence in the months after his stunning victory.
That hasn't happened so far, and most experts say the 80-mile (130-kilometer) wide Taiwan Strait that divides the longtime rivals should remain calm for the near future. Although long-standing disagreements are keeping them far from the bargaining table, both are remaining cool-headed - despite occasional flare-ups in rhetoric.
But on Saturday, Taiwanese President-elect Chen Shui-bian takes office, officially beginning a political era that could raise tensions with China to new heights. Beijing will no doubt listen closely to Chen's inauguration speech.
The possibility of war can't be ruled out, analysts say, and the United States could quickly get dragged into a conflict. Just four years ago, U.S. warships cruised to Taiwan when China tested nuclear-capable missiles near the island's two main ports.
Since the two sides split amid civil war 51 years ago, Beijing's mission has been to reunify this democratic island of 22 million people with the communist mainland. Independence for Taiwan has been out of the question, and China has warned that it would wage war if Taipei sought a permanent split or indefinitely delayed reunification.
Acting on its threats could be extremely reckless for China at the moment. A war could torpedo Beijing's long campaign to join the World Trade Organization, and would likely ruin China's chances of getting permanent trade status with the United States.
"China has a lot of economic issues in the United States' hands," said Lee Si-kuen, a political science professor at the National Taiwan University.
Many defense experts doubt that China has enough warships or planes to successfully invade Taiwan. The massive Chinese army has its roots in land-based guerrilla warfare and has never fought a war that involves a complex naval landing.
This week, Adm. Thomas B. Fargo, the U.S. Pacific Fleet commander in chief, said in Hong Kong that invading Taiwan would be an "almost impossible military task" for China.
Jonathan Pollack, a senior Asia specialist at the Rand Corp. think tank, agreed. But he noted that history is full of conflicts caused by miscalculations.
Other analysts point out that Beijing's goal would probably be to simply frighten Taiwanese away from seeking independence. This could be accomplished by firing a ballistic missile at an unpopulated area, blocking a port or seizing one of Taiwan's numerous outlying islands.
Since Chen was elected March 18, Beijing has said peace talks could begin if Taiwan would do one thing: Agree that the island is an inseparable part of one China.
Taiwan has long been wary of Beijing's "one-China" principle because it fears accepting that would mean admitting the repressive Beijing government is the island's legitimate ruler.
Chen has refused to accept the principle as a precondition for talks, but has said he would be willing to discuss it during a summit, which he has said he would attend anywhere and at any time.
Before Chen was elected, Beijing tried to warn voters away from the former Taipei mayor, once a vocal supporter of Taiwan independence. His Democratic Progressive Party still favors letting Taiwanese voters decide whether the island should break away for good. Chen has softened his stance, saying he would only hold such a vote if China attacks.
Since Chen's victory, Beijing has given him time to prove himself.
"We will listen to his words and watch his actions," Chinese Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Zhang Qiyue said Tuesday, repeating a phrase Beijing has been using the past two months.
Chen, who is succeeding retiring President Lee Teng-hui, has been avoiding provocative language and has ignored threatening rhetoric printed in China's state-run media.
Declaring independence would be difficult for him, partly because his small DPP party lacks a majority in the legislature. Also, most polls say the public opposes such a declaration, fearing it would spark a war.
Julian Kuo, associate professor of political science at Taipei's Soochow University, said Chen has done a fair job handling Beijing so far.
But Kuo said the president-elect has yet to present a solution that will ease tensions, and the professor is not expecting one Saturday when Chen gives his inauguration speech.
"I don't think the speech will give Beijing an excuse to attack," Kuo said, "but it also won't make Beijing feel satisfied."
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