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     Increased
    govt borrowing may land annual national budget in a vicious credit cycle  | 
  
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       May 29, 2000   Dhaka,
      May 28 (UNB) – Increased government borrowing stakes may land annual
      national budget in a vicious credit cycle, financial experts cautioned
      today.   “Maximum
      of the net credits from the banking system, for the first time in the
      current fiscal, accounts for the public sector compared to the private
      sector,” said eminent economist Prof Wahid Uddin Mahmud, refraining from
      disclosing the figure.   However,
      informed sources say the public-sector borrowings stood at around Tk 5,000
      crore in July-May period of the outgoing fiscal 1999-2000.   “The
      budget may lead to the vicious cycle of credits and thus lose its
      credibility if the borrowings exceed the permissible limits,” said the
      Economics teacher of Dhaka University, who is also a member of the
      advisory council on the Finance Ministry of the government.    
         Addressing
      a seminar he observed the interest on the borrowed bank money would have
      to be paid from the revenue budget.   Bangladesh
      Institute of Bank Management (BIBM) organised the seminar on “Politics
      in Bangladesh and Changing Pattern of Banking” in its conference room.   Chaired
      by BIBM director general Dr Muinul Islam, the seminar was also addressed
      Dr Atiur Rahman of Bangladesh Institute of Development Studies (BIDS) and
      Dr Tawfique Ahmed Chowdhury of BIBM. Journalist Ajoy Das Gupta presented
      the keynote.   Prof
      Mahmud said analysing political influence behind the unpaid loans was not
      possible at all for want of necessary information – when the credits
      were given.   Citing
      a study conducted by BIBM recently on some 150 defaulters, he said 80 per
      cent of the loans were given under political and trade union influences
      while only 20 per cent could avail the credit facilities directly from the
      banks.   Out
      of the total directed loans, ministers influenced 46 per cent, parliament
      members 35 per cent, ruling party leaders 13 per cent and labour leaders 4
      per cent, he told the function quoting the survey.    The
      study report is not yet published.   “The
      forces behind the bad debts could be traced if the debts were found to be
      influenced,” said the Economics professor.   He
      said the competitiveness in deposit mobilisation by the commercial banks
      increased in present times due to liberalised banking system, which is not
      being seen in credit distribution.   He
      said deregulation in the banking sector did not help increase the
      efficiency in the banking system and reduce the difference between the
      rates of deposit and lending. Instead, the gap widened from 6-7 per cent
      to 7-8 per cent. 
 
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